2010 Predictions

It’s Q. Gonna fill the Friday guest slot from time to time. I live in Texas and don’t care about the Pads, so I’m gonna try and provide some unbiased perspective on the league in general. I’m a recovering Dodger fan but I hate them more than y’all in some ways (did I mention I live in Texas?)

Although I respect Dallas as a “force” in Fantasy Baseball, I don’t respect him as a force in “knowing things about real baseball.” So I started with my own predictions. Then a strange thing happened. After writing mine, I went back to look at Dallas’ and was horrified to realize that we mostly agree. So, I suppose you should think of my predictions as an extension of his, but with more baseball and less jokes. Which basically encapsulates our current relationship. With each other. In steam rooms. Together.

(One note: The HINGES section is what I see as the differences between a team’s goals being open or shut. The HINGES are the biggest variables for this and future seasons. The HINGES are not necessarily the most important or best players. For example, the Cardinals are most dependent on Pujols to succeed. But I don’t consider him a HINGE because he’s been so consistent that he’s not a variable. “Sure things are of little interest.” Also, bear in mind that the HINGES are based on that team’s goals. A goal could be to win the Series, to get better, or to get worse to get better later. And don’t fool yourselves; there are a couple of teams with zero interest in any improvement whatsoever. Their HINGES are the things they need to maintain poor performance, which is their unstated but obvious goal.)

Here we go:

AL EAST

1. Yankees—they won last year and they’ve added talent. Why won’t they win?
HINGES: Holy Grail so that Jeter and Rivera live forever, Joba Chamberlain, Phillip Hughes.
2. Red Sox (WILD CARD)—About to rise again, but without ever falling. Neat trick.
HINGES: Adrian Beltre, Jacoby Ellsbury, the Last Days of David Ortiz
3. Rays—once again, the best 3rd place team in baseball. Only massive breakouts from Upton and Price get them back with the big boys.
HINGES: Pat Burrell, Ben Zobrist, and Ben Zobrist (I listed him twice b/c the Rays need him to play both second and outfield. Which means they need another guy).
4. Orioles—Getting there. Rotation has potential and if they can find bats at the infield corners, this team could turn around sooner rather than later.
HINGES: A shortstop not currently on the roster, patience, Rolaids. (PS: I wrote this yesterday and immediately the Orioles acquired Julio Lugo, which is a definite upgrade. Lugo being an upgrade is a BAD thing)
5. Blue Jays—Trading Halladay was the right move in the long run. Right now, it bites.
HINGES: Aaron Hill, Travis Snider, Adam Lind, and Brett Wallace (he’s the one not here yet); this is the beginning of something formidable if they can keep them Canadian.

AL CENTRAL

1. Twins—don’t be surprised if JJ Hardy is one of the biggest acquistitions of the year. Mauer and Morneau are enough to win, if the rotation develops like it can.
HINGES: Someone who takes playing time from Nick Punto, Francisco Liriano, Delmon Young.
2. White Sox—Got the best players from two sinking ships. I like this team.
HINGES: Gordon Beckham, Jake Peavy, Alexis Rios
3. Tigers—about to blow it up. If any high price players other than Verlander and Cabrera are left by August 1st, I’ll be mighty surprised.
HINGES: Austin Jackson, trading partners to take their crap, bullpen.
4. Royals—Still not happening. And not looking as promising as it did last year.
HINGES: Pitchers not named Zach, keeping the infield together, a CF not named Ankiel.
5. Indians—Even if Sizemore and Peralta have good years, Hafner is done and pitching is awful.
HINGES: Whichever 2 starters you actually want on the team next year, whatever helps Matt LaPorta and Lou Marson be part of the next relevant Cleveland team.

AL WEST

1. Mariners—Cliff Lee and Chone Figgins make the difference.
HINGES: The power hitting 1B and OF the M’s get at the trade deadline, enough pitching from the 4th and 5th starters to get by.
2. Rangers—They’ve improved enough to win the division…..except the M’s improved more and jumped them. They have, like, 10 possibilities for the rotation….of course, that actually means they don’t have anyone, really.
HINGES: Neftali Feliz (Closer? Setup? Starter? Batman?), outfield production.
3. Angels—they step backward, but only briefly. They’ll be back next year.
HINGES: Kendry Morales, Brandon Wood, Starting Pitching
4. A’s—A trendy pick to win the division. I don’t buy it. The young pitchers are overhyped and this is still an awful lineup.
HINGES: Starters, Cliff Pennington, someone who can hit with some power.

MVP: Miguel Cabrera
CY YOUNG: CC Sabathia


NL EAST
1. Phillies—what happens if Halladay gets hurt, after what they gave up to get him? Is Philly still standing or do they burn it to the ground?
HINGES: Placido Polanco, Raul Ibanez, and Roy Halladay staying young, a Jimmy Rollins comeback year.
2. Braves—Starting to assemble a strong rotation again, but the lineup is not quite there. HINGES: New but not sparkly bullpen, whoever replaces Glaus at first when he goes on the DL, Jason Heyward.
3. Mets—I guess I’m surprised, but it’s not going to happen. They have to fire EVERYONE for this, don’t they? BLOW IT UP, BITCHES!
HINGES: Non-Johan starters, Daniel Murphy, Jeff Francoeur
4. Marlins—Think maybe Loria has it figured out; fire sales don’t look as bad if you don’t make the playoffs. He just can’t let them get too good (he even fires good managers, just in case! Watch out, Fredi!) Think of Josh Johnson as a sign-and-trade and Uggla probably goes too.
HINGES: Continued revenue sharing, continued bad attendance, continued fan apathy.
5. Nationals—don’t worry, you’re in the right place. Now we just wait for Strasburg.
HINGES: Oh. . . whoever.

NL CENTRAL
1. Cardinals—Keeping Holliday was good. But why let Piniero walk? This team has tons of stars, but they have some real stinkers, too.
HINGES: One more bat, infielders who are actually good enough to start on another team, bullpen.
2. Brewers (WILD CARD)—I know the pitching sucks, but MY GOD what a lineup! I love the Brewers, dude. This is a heart pick, because the Division is so terrible. I just want them to win games so I can watch them hit more.
HINGES: Richie Weeks’ Guardian Angel, Carlos Gomez, some freakin’ luck.
3. Cubs—It’s all the same guys from last year; why they are a trendy pick is beyond me.
HINGES: Vacant Space formerly occupied by Milton Bradley, Carlos Zambrano, Aramis Ramirez (Honorable Mention: whoever can get the latter two to STOP EATING!)
4. Reds—Their lineup sucks. And their pitching is still terrible, right? Am I really gonna pick them to “break out” for like the 5th year in a row?
HINGES: Drew Stubbs being good, Orlando Cabrera and Ramon Hernandez not being there by July (seriously, if you are the Reds, what do you have to lose by going with ALL young guys? Are you really so close that Cabrera and Hernandez, both ten years past their primes, help you more than figuring out if you’ve got homegrown guys who can play catcher and shortstop? Really?)
5. Pirates—Maybe? Something? No? Ok.
HINGES: Lastings Milledge, Andy LaRoche, honestly I don’t care enough to think of anyone else.
6. Astros—it’s been time to blow it up for about three years. Pretty soon, there won’t be anything left to implode.
HINGES: The guts to trade Berkman, the guts to trade Oswalt, the guts to try for something better than 3rd place.

NL WEST
1. Rockies—Why? Pitching and defense, of course. Gotta play small ball to win in Colorado, right?
HINGES: Outfield, Bullpen, either Stewart or Barmes to hit a little better.
2. Dodgers—Divorce is a good thing because now FUCKING NED can’t try to re-sign Juan Pierre, Andruw Jones, Jason Schmidt, Casey Blake or any other lame-ass, retread, has-beens that get in the way of the kids.
HINGES: Head trainer that keeps Billingsley and Kershaw healthy, Russell Martin, James Loney (Honorable Mention: the guy who shoots a missile at the satellite that Ned Colletti’s cell phone uses so he can’t use the phone in July to trade young players for absolutely useless crap. DEPODESTA LIVES!)
3. D-Backs--At a crossroads; they’ve been a “young team” for several years which means they aren’t young any more. Now or never is coming soon.
HINGES: Chris Young, Justin Upton, Brandon Webb
4. Giants—if the Brewers had the Giants pitchers, is it the greatest team ever? If the Giant lineup had the Brewers’ staff, is it the worst? Might be worst lineup in the bigs.
HINGES: Player 1, Player 2, and Player 3 to play with Panda. Really, just about anyone will do. Apply now!
5. Padres—Diagnostic year: who might be good someday and who never will.
HINGES: Keeping Adrian Gonzalez, trading Adrian Gonzalez only if you get 3 top 50 prospects back, and “You know, with Peavy and Giles gone, we could probably afford to keep Adrian Gonzalez, right?”

MVP: Prince Fielder
CY YOUNG: Tim Lincecum. Yes, again.

WORLD SERIES: Yankees over Cardinals, 4-3.

Go Pads! Oh, wait, I don’t care. Go Interesting Baseball Season! Go IBS! No, not you…..wait….hang on, I’ll be back in about half an hour.


~Q